A new study has highlighted the significant challenges facing the United Kingdom, pointing to a decline in effective national governance and the enduring impacts of austerity measures and Brexit as key factors stifling economic growth and undermining social cohesion. According to researchers from the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and the Hertie School in Berlin, the incoming government will need to address “severe problems” caused by these long-term issues to improve citizens’ quality of life.
As the UK prepares for a General Election on July 4, with Labour currently leading in the polls and potentially set to return to power for the first time since 2010, the study warns that the next government will inherit “several interlocking crises.” These crises stem from what the researchers describe as a “lost” decade and a half since the global financial crisis of 2008, during which time the quality of governance in the UK has seen a marked decline.
The report, which uses the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) to assess the past 14 years of Conservative rule, indicates that while the UK began the new millennium with high levels of government performance, there have been “signs of stagnation and erosion” in recent years. The study points to a lack of state capacity to address pressing social and economic challenges, compounded by inadequate investment in infrastructure and growing regional inequalities. These issues, the report suggests, have fuelled a “palpable political backlash,” particularly since the mid-2010s.
Adding to this, political scandals, such as the breaches of lockdown rules by officials during the pandemic and other parliamentary misconduct, have exacerbated public discontent, leading to near-record low levels of trust in many UK public institutions. The study notes that this erosion of trust and the economic underperformance seen in recent years could lead to a historic defeat for the Conservative Party in the upcoming election.
However, the researchers caution that a Labour victory would bring with it a daunting task. The incoming government, they argue, will need to focus on restoring public trust and rebuilding an economic model that promotes long-term growth. Labour’s pledges, which include strict rules on taxation and public spending, reforms to boost housing and infrastructure, and investment in clean energy jobs, are seen as steps towards this goal. Nevertheless, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has criticised both major parties for avoiding difficult spending decisions in the face of high taxes and struggling public services.
Despite these challenges, the Berggruen Governance Index still ranks the UK’s governance among the highest of the 145 countries assessed. While the country’s scores for quality of life and democratic accountability have remained relatively stable since 2010, there has been a notable decline in state capacity, which the report attributes to an “interplay” of austerity measures and political dysfunction.
The study concludes that post-2010 austerity and the decision to leave the EU have left lasting scars on the UK economy and have strained the country’s social cohesion. It calls for a serious examination of the reasons behind the erosion of state capacity and urges the next government to prioritise regional planning and investment to reverse these negative trends and secure a more prosperous future for the UK.