- Buckinghamshire students are expected to attain the highest grades in maths this August, with an average of 34.1% of students achieving grades seven, eight, and nine from 2019 to 2023.
- The research examined the number of students who achieved grades seven to nine in maths GCSE between 2019 and 2023 to determine the counties expected to exceed expectations in 2024.
- Isle of Wight, Cornwall, Staffordshire, Lincolnshire, and Cumbria are expected to gain the fewest grades of seven, eight, and nine in GCSE maths in 2024, according to the study.
New data reveals that Buckinghamshire, Greater London, and Berkshire are expected to perform the best in GCSE mathematics on results day 2024.
The study, conducted by math education platform Calcworkshop, examined data on the number of 16-year-old students achieving grades seven, eight, and nine in GCSE maths between 2019 and 2023, according to the Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation (Ofqual). The counties with the highest percentage of students attaining these grades have been named in the top ten maths genius hotspots in England.
Buckinghamshire takes the crown as the county most likely to perform the best in GCSE maths in 2024. Between 2019 and 2023, 34.1% of students achieved grades seven, eight, and nine, 54% above the national average in England. In 2021, 10.4% of students received a grade nine, making it the most successful year in the county.
The second maths genius capital is Greater London. The study shows that 30.1% of students attained grades seven to nine between 2019 and 2023, 31% more than the national benchmark. With 8.6% of 16-year-old students achieving a grade nine, 2021 was the best year for maths GCSEs in Greater London.
Berkshire is the third county most likely to perform best in GCSE maths in 2024. In 2021, the best year for the county, 8.8% of students received top marks of grade nine. Additionally, 29.9% of students received grades seven, eight, and nine from 2019 to 2023, 35% above the average in England.
According to the study, Surrey ranks in fourth place. With 29.8% of students achieving grades between seven to nine from 2019 to 2023, 16-year-olds are 34% more likely to achieve high marks in 2024; 2021 was also the year with the highest percentage of people receiving grade nines, at 8.6%.
In fifth place, Hertfordshire’s GCSE maths students are 33% more likely to outperform other counties in England. The county saw 29.5% of students gain grades seven, eight, and nine between 2019 and 2023. Out of these years, 2021 had the highest grades, with 8.2% of 16-year-olds receiving a grade nine.
Rutland, with 27.4% of students achieving grades seven to nine in GCSE maths, ranks as England’s sixth maths genius hotspot. As such, the county’s 16-year-old students are 27% more likely to outperform in August 2024. Between 2019 and 2023, 2021 saw the highest grades, totalling 8.3% of students achieving grade nines.
Table 1: England’s maths genius hotspots in 2024
| Rank | U.K. counties | Average percentage of students achieving grades seven, eight, and nine (2019-2023) |
| 1 | Buckinghamshire | 34.1% |
| 2 | Greater London | 30.1% |
| 3 | Berkshire | 29.9% |
| 4 | Surrey | 29.8% |
| 5 | Hertfordshire | 29.5% |
| 6 | Rutland | 27.4% |
| 7 | Warwickshire | 26.8% |
| 8 | Oxfordshire | 25.7% |
| 9 | Cambridgeshire | 25.6% |
| 10 | Gloucestershire | 24.5% |
According to the study, Warwickshire ranks seventh, with 26.8% of 16-year-olds achieving the top three grades in GCSE maths, 21% above the national benchmark. In 2021, 7.5% of students attained a grade nine, making it the highest-performing year from 2019 to 2023.
Oxfordshire ranks in eighth, with 25.7% of students receiving grades seven to nine between 2019 and 2023, followed by 25.6% in Cambridgeshire. Gloucestershire ranks as England’s tenth maths genius hotspot, with 24.5% of students outperforming.
On the other hand, the Isle of Wight saw the fewest number of students achieving top grades in GCSE maths. Between 2019 and 2023, 15.4% received grades seven, eight, and nine, 30% less than the average between all counties in England. Interestingly, 2019 had the lowest number of students achieving grade nines, at 1.4%.
Cornwall follows in second, with 17.4% of students receiving grades seven to nine between 2019 and 2023. As such, the county’s 16-year-olds are 21% less likely to achieve top grades in August 2024.
Staffordshire and Lincolnshire tie for third place, with 17.9% of students attaining grades seven, eight, and nine in GCSE maths. Cumbria ranks in fourth, with 18.7% of students, along with East Riding of Yorkshire and Merseyside in fifth, with 18.8% of students achieving top grades between 2019 and 2023.
Jenn Stull, founder of Calcworkshop, has commented on the findings: “GCSE results day is just around the corner. In the coming weeks, students across the country will be preparing to enjoy the fruits of their labour and receive the grades that will dictate their future, whether they choose to pursue apprenticeships at college or A-Levels at Sixth Form.
“This study reveals the counties most likely to exceed expectations in GCSE maths. Based on high-scoring students between 2019 and 2023, Buckinghamshire has been named the number one maths genius hotspot in England, followed by Greater London and Berkshire.
“Additionally, it is interesting to see southern counties dominate the top ten maths genius capitals. In turn, northern counties, such as Cumbria and Merseyside, are found in the bottom ten. This suggests that, in these northern counties, a greater emphasis should be placed on maths learning and revision from 2025 onwards.”
Table 2: Counties expected to achieve the fewest top grades in GCSE maths
| Rank | U.K. counties | Average percentage of students achieving grades seven, eight, and nine (2019-2023) |
| 1 | Isle of Wight | 15.4% |
| 2 | Cornwall | 17.4% |
| =3 | Staffordshire | 17.9% |
| =3 | Lincolnshire | 17.9% |
| 4 | Cumbria | 18.7% |
| =5 | East Riding of Yorkshire | 18.8% |
| =5 | Merseyside | 18.8% |
| =6 | Durham | 18.9% |
| =6 | Suffolk | 18.9% |
| 7 | Norfolk | 19% |
| =8 | Herefordshire | 19.3% |
| =8 | South Yorkshire | 19.3% |
| =9 | Shropshire | 19.7% |
| =9 | Tyne and Wear | 19.7% |
| 10 | Northamptonshire | 19.9% |